Probability vs Prediction
An expert-level explanation of why successful market participants think in probabilities, not forecasts, and how payoff distributions matter more than being right.
Options: Purpose Before Strategy
An expert framework for understanding options by intent—hedging, volatility, capital efficiency, and payoff design—before choosing any strategy.
Market Microstructure
An expert-level look at how markets actually function beneath the surface, explaining liquidity, bid–ask spreads, order flow, and why prices move even when no news appears.
Earnings Reaction
An intermediate explanation of why stocks often move unexpectedly after earnings, focusing on expectations, guidance, positioning, and how uncertainty gets repriced.
News, Narratives, and Market Reactions
An intermediate look at how markets react to narratives rather than headlines, why expectations matter more than news, and how price action reveals what the market actually believes.
Position Sizing vs “All In” Thinking
An intermediate guide explaining why position sizing matters more than conviction, how “all in” thinking creates fragility, and why survival—not boldness—drives long-term success.